Rep. Levin & Sen. Schiff Introduce New Bicameral Legislation to Explicitly Ban Death & War Prediction Contracts
Washington, D.C.—Today, Rep. Mike Levin (CA-49) and U.S. Senator Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) are introducing the DEATH BETS Act, new bicameral legislation to explicitly prohibit any Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered entity from listing any contract that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death.
“Betting on war and death should be illegal. While federal law prohibits prediction market contracts on terrorism, war, and assassination, there are still gaping holes that allow traders to profit off death. The result is a system with nothing standing between a prediction market and a contract that lets someone make money off the outbreak of war or the deaths of American service members. We already saw what that looks like: over half a billion dollars was wagered on the timing of U.S. military strikes on Iran alone. That is unacceptable, and this legislation puts a stop to it,” said Rep. Levin.
“Betting on war and death creates an environment in which insiders can profit off of classified information, our national security is jeopardized, and violence is encouraged. There is no justification for gambling on lives, or public benefit to be derived by such a market. With regulators turning a blind eye, prediction markets have rapidly become the Wild West. As the CFTC seeks to rewrite the rules of the road, Congress must make clear that these death bets are unequivocally prohibited, and this bill would do just that,” said Sen. Schiff.
Under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC currently has the authority to prohibit war, terrorism, and assassination contracts from being listed if they are determined by the Commission to be contrary to the public interest. Whether or not these contracts are in the public interest is at the discretion of the CFTC. At a time when CFTC Chair Selig has indicated that he will rewrite the rules on prediction markets, the CFTC can no longer be granted this discretion. The DEATH BETS Act will unequivocally ban these contracts.
The introduction of this bill follows platforms listing prediction contracts relating to war and death, such as whether Iran’s Ali Khamenei would be “out as Supreme Leader" which had $54 million in trading volume on Kalshi before it was paused.
Rep. Levin previously raised alarms on these “death contracts” being offered on offshore exchanges, such as if Maduro would be removed from power and whether the Ukrainian town of Myrnohad would be captured by Russian forces.
The bill would:
- codify a prohibition on war, assassination, and terrorism contracts,
- explicitly prohibits contracts that involve death or may otherwise be construed to closely correlate with death, which is not currently referenced in the Commodity Exchange Act.
The full text of the bill is available here.
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